Nations & economies

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  S&P licenses Indian futures contracts

  11 Mar 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has licensed the National Stock Exchange of India to create and list rupee-denominated futures contracts on the S&P 500 benchmark index for the first time.

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  Strategist dampens fears of inflation

  11 Mar 2010 Nations & economies, Commodities, Research report
  Christian Nolting, Asia-Pacific lead strategist for Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management, says that rising commodity prices could push up headline inflation rates, but that core rates will remain at a low level.

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  Opinion: China right to take slow road on futures

  10 Mar 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Editorial
  Trading in stock index futures is set to start next month in China after years of preparation. Investors say the minimum deposit of Rmb500,000 is too onerous, but the regulator’s push for a high entry barrier is the right one.

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  Consolidation looms for Asia’s insurance industry

  09 Mar 2010 M&A, Nations & economies
  Following UK insurer Prudential’s US$35.5 billion bid for American International Assurance, analysts note Asia’s insurance industry is ripe for mergers and acquisitions as smaller firms team up to improve their competitiveness.

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  Opinion: why China Mobile must come clean

  09 Mar 2010 M&A, Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Editorial
  The world’s largest mobile telecoms operator should divulge the real reasons behind its plan to buy a stake in Shanghai Pudong Development Bank or risk seeing billions more being wiped off its market capitalisation.

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  Asian firms urged to raise investment spending

  08 Mar 2010 Nations & economies
  HSBC’s senior Asian economist Frederic Neumann notes that the region needs a back-up growth driver for when fiscal stimuli begin to fade or western demand starts to wobble. Now is the right time, he says, given low rates and available credit.

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  Opinion: India’s budget should keep growth on track

  05 Mar 2010 Nations & economies, Editorial
  While India’s budget could have been more aggressive in removing fiscal stimulus, it does offer a broad set of reforms, disciplined spending and a commitment to more infrastructure development. It will keep most people happy.

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  Business news: the past week in Asia

  05 Mar 2010 Nations & economies, Market wrap
  Prudential bids to buy AIA, while China Merchants Bank and Bank of Communications plot major rights offerings. Australia and Malaysia hike rates and Nomura conducts its first US dollar bond issue.

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  Greek stability seen to boost Asian currencies

  04 Mar 2010 Nations & economies, Bonds, Foreign exchange
  Markets have responded positively as Greek borrowing costs dropped to their lowest level since mid-February. This positive news is likely to move Asian currencies higher, notes Mitul Kotecha of Credit Agricole CIB.

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  Liquidity joins labelling in ECB discussions

  03 Mar 2010 Nations & economies, Bonds
  The European covered bond market needs to reinstate a liquid segment at its core as a means of spurring standardisation, which would make the asset class more attractive and broaden its investor base, Michel Stubbe, head of the markets operations analysis division at the European Central Bank, told The Cover. He stressed that his views do not necessarily reflect the policies of the ECB.

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  HSBC raises Hong Kong GDP growth forecast

  03 Mar 2010 Nations & economies
  The bank revises its figures for economic expansion from 3.8% to 5.4% in 2010 on the back of improved private consumption and increased tourism. The government has set aside more than 90% in one-off concessions for individuals, it notes.

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  Fund manager focuses on stock-picker’s paradise

  03 Mar 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Asset management
  Global economic growth will be slower than market consensus and equity investors should take advantage by targeting industry-leaders as they are best placed to benefit from potential consolidation, says Greg Woodard.

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  Headwinds threaten Asia’s corporate bond market

  03 Mar 2010 Nations & economies, Bonds
  Conflicting policy objectives among Asian nations makes investors uncertain about the strength of economic recovery, says Moody’s. Any development not in line with expectations could trigger swift changes in capital flows.

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  Marcel Kreis eyes 20% growth in net new assets

  02 Mar 2010 M&A, Nations & economies, Private banking
  The head of Credit Suisse’s Asia-Pacific private banking business says he wants to grow regional net new assets up to 20% per annum over the next three years. He has faith in the region, but also in the bank’s Swiss home market.

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  Cautious growth seen in hiring, salaries this year

  26 Feb 2010 Investment banking, Nations & economies, Market move
  Recruitment firm Robert Walters says hiring and salary levels in Asia’s financial services industry will begin to rise again this year as economies continue to recover. But companies are also expected to change their compensation structure.

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  Strong US dollar in sight, says senior trader

  26 Feb 2010 Nations & economies, Foreign exchange
  Choppy trading in FX markets over the past few weeks likely signals the start of a new trend of further strengthening in the US dollar, notes Robert Reilly of Société Générale. But he is bullish on the medium-term outlook for Asian currencies.

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  Steps outlined as renminbi creeps towards convertibility

  25 Feb 2010 Nations & economies, Foreign exchange
  China has liberalised its currency cautiously in recent years, but as its economy grows, pressure to allow the renminbi to become fully convertible will rise quickly. Chris Wright reports.

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  Further volatility expected in Asia’s credit markets

  25 Feb 2010 Nations & economies, Bonds, Loans
  The region’s credit markets have remained resilient despite fears about Greece’s fiscal deficits, with markets reacting positively to the US Fed’s discount rate hike. But Nomura’s Dong Nam believes they will give up some of their recent gains.

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  Macquarie outlines potential of nuclear power in Asia

  24 Feb 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Energy
  China’s and India’s growing need for nuclear power will boost the fortunes of companies in the supply chain, many of which are based in Asia, notes Macquarie as it highlights its regional picks in the sector.

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  Ulrich adopts cautious tone on China growth

  24 Feb 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  In contrast to her stance a year ago, J.P. Morgan’s chairman of China equities and commodities Jing Ulrich admits she is cautious about China’s growth prospects because of likely monetary tightening and a ‘monumental’ property bubble.

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  Hong Kong banking sector forecast to stay weak

  23 Feb 2010 Stock & exchange, Investment banking, Nations & economies, Loans
  Todd Dunivant, head of bank research for Asia-Pacific at HSBC, notes that Hong Kong’s banking sector will continue to underperform as long as western economies remain weak.

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  India market corrections are a buy, says Nomura

  23 Feb 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Broking
  Rising inflation and monetary tightening in India will likely lead to declines in the stock market. However, Nomura says this is a buying opportunity as a more normal fiscal environment is a long-term positive for financial markets.

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  Asian FX intervention forecast to continue

  22 Feb 2010 Nations & economies, Foreign exchange, Research report
  Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange strategy for Calyon, says the US dollar will come under pressure in the first half of this year, suggesting that FX intervention will continue, although a lot depends on China's FX policy.

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  Bearish response to US rate hike ‘uncalled for’

  19 Feb 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Foreign exchange
  Mitul Kotecha, head of global FX strategy at Credit Agricole, says the market reaction to the Fed’s discount rate hike is overdone and will have no immediate implication for Asian monetary policy or growth profile.

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  HSBC sees buying opportunity in Chinese stocks

  19 Feb 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  The bank believes expectations of interest rate hikes by China are exaggerated and that the recent equities decline presents a buying opportunity for investors. But it is bearish on Indian stocks because the risk of inflation.

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  Delays dampen Mongolia IPO excitement

  18 Feb 2010 Stock & exchange, Investment banking, Nations & economies
  After the flotation of coal producer SouthGobi Energy Resources last month, observers were anticipating a raft of Mongolian IPOs to follow suit. But a lack of domestic infrastructure and investment has hurt the deal pipeline.

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  Impact of EU fiscal crisis on Asia downplayed

  17 Feb 2010 Nations & economies, Bonds, Foreign exchange
  Regional equity and currency markets are forecast to rebound despite fears over the potential debt default of several European countries. Analysts say Asia’s economic fundamentals are strong, which should support demand for regional assets.

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  2010 Asian monetary policy forecast to remain loose

  17 Feb 2010 Nations & economies
  The region’s central banks will tighten monetary policy this year at a slower rate than many observers expect, according to Credit Suisse. But China and India stand out as exceptions.

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  Opinion: Mongolia must push to privatise

  12 Feb 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Editorial
  The country’s financial markets remain vastly undeveloped, to the detriment of its economy and population. The government must modernise the country's capital markets and privatise more state-owned enterprises if it is not to be left behind by the rest of Asia.

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  China's GDP is larger than Japan's: Morgan Stanley

  11 Feb 2010 Nations & economies
  The US investment bank predicts that China may well already have surpassed Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy. It predicts that the People's Bank of China will need to raise rates three times this year.

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  Beijing will attempt to avoid rate hikes, says Moody’s

  10 Feb 2010 Nations & economies
  The credit rating agency predicts that the People’s Bank of China will sparingly increase interest rates this year, preferring to use bank reserve and treasury bond yield increases to control credit growth and inflation.

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  Asia export slowdown could halt central bank rate hikes

  09 Feb 2010 Nations & economies
  The growth of exports in the region could begin to taper off this year, prompting central banks might to keep fiscal and monetary policy more accommodative than previously thought.

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  Industry figures take bearish view on US dollar

  04 Feb 2010 Nations & economies, Foreign exchange
  While panelists at this month’s Euromoney Asia Forex Forum in Singapore were divided over the greenback’s short-term prospects, almost all take a bleak long-term view, noting ‘65% of the Federal Reserve’s assets are toxic’.

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  Macquarie sees ‘extreme value’ in Japanese stocks

  03 Feb 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Japanese equities are being tipped to outperform the rest of Asia by Macquarie analysts as their valuations are currently the cheapest in the region. They are also likely to receive a further boost from recent declines in the yen.

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  Experts debate risks of huge central bank reserves

  02 Feb 2010 Nations & economies, Foreign exchange
  Participants at the Euromoney Asia Forex Forum have questioned the need for Asian central banks to hoard excessive amounts of foreign exchange reserves, suggesting it could pose problems for global markets.

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  China PMI figures underline inflationary pressures

  01 Feb 2010 Nations & economies, Loans
  Industrial activity accelerated at record pace in China last month, but rising input and output prices highlight mounting inflationary pressures and raise the likelihood of further fiscal tightening measures.

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  Asia’s IPO pipeline expected to thin out

  01 Feb 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Signs of consolidation in global equity markets, combined with a string of disappointing regional debuts, is forecast to slow Asia’s IPO pipeline down in the near term. But bankers expect activity to pick up before 2010 is through.

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  Business news: the past week in Asia

  29 Jan 2010 Nations & economies, Market wrap
  Bank of China revealed plans to sell US$5.8 billion in convertible bonds, while Chinese regulators ordered a suspension in new loans. Shares in UC Rusal fell on their Hong Kong debut, while CVC Capital Partners agreed what would be Indonesia’s largest private equity deal.

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  Little upside left in Indian rupee, says HSBC

  29 Jan 2010 Nations & economies, Foreign exchange
  The bank notes that the rupee is now the fourth most expensive Asian currency against the US dollar. HSBC is tipping the Korean won, the New Taiwan dollar and Indonesia’s rupiah to appreciate more strongly.

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  Country deals of the year: Philippines

  29 Jan 2010 Nations & economies, Bonds, Polls & awards
  San Miguel's US$802 million multi-tranche bond issue broke domestic records and finally put to rest the notion that the country's local market could not support a deal of significant size. It earns Asismoney's award as the best deal in the Philippines over the past year.

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  Further decoupling forecast for Asian nations

  28 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Asset management
  Increasing domestic demand will see Asian economies continue to decouple from developed countries as the region becomes less dependent on exports, notes UK-based fund manager Aberdeen Asset Management.

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  Opinion: how Indonesia can reach its ratings goal

  28 Jan 2010 Nations & economies, Editorial, Bonds
  The country has set itself the task of returning to investment grade status in three years. But it needs to answer people’s concerns about transparency first if it is to overcome the many obstacles in its path.

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  Deutsche targets growth in trade and export finance

  27 Jan 2010 Nations & economies, Project finance, Market move
  The German bank has hired Paul Gardner from RBS as its Asia-Pacific head of structured trade and export finance, based in Singapore. It also expects to announce more appointments soon in an area it views with optimism.

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  Bankers see investor shift towards commodities

  27 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Structured products, Nations & economies, Commodities, Private banking
  Emerging market economies offered strong returns last year, but bankers are touting commodities as a potential trend for 2010. Given the likelihood of price volatility and seasonality, they expect investor education lies in store.

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  Fears of China overheating seen as exaggerated

  26 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Analysts at Credit Suisse say China is experiencing financial, rather than economic, overheating. They see recent declines in the country’s equity markets as a buying opportunity and highlight some favourite picks.

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  Citi strategists see the value of health care

  26 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Commodities, Foreign exchange
  The US bank is advising clients to seize on opportunities in the health-care sector on the back of structural changes and long-term underperformance. It likes global real estate too, but points to potential risks in recovery.

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  China urged to temper inflation threat

  25 Jan 2010 Real estate, Nations & economies
  The country’s central bank must send a strong tightening signal to dampen inflation expectations, says RBS’ chief China economist Ben Simpfendorfer. He admits to concerns over the threat of asset price bubbles.

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  Nomura highlights tale of two recoveries

  25 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Economic growth will remain divided between developed countries, which are likely to continue a weak recovery, and emerging market economies, which will forge ahead with a strong recovery, say economists at Nomura.

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  RBI forecast to hike cash reserve ratio

  24 Jan 2010 Nations & economies
  The Reserve Bank of India is tipped to raise the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points at its next meeting on January 29, while keeping repo and reserve repo rates steady so as not to hurt investment into the country.

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  Aberdeen harbours hope over access to China investors

  21 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Aberdeen Asset Management director Alex Boggis reveals his optimism about gaining greater access to domestic investors and funds in China, despite regulators scrapping plans for its “through-train” programme.

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  Hong Kong tipped to remain top IPO market in 2010

  20 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Firms from China and elsewhere are queuing up to debut in the city, attracted by its low interest-rate environment and relatively low volatility. Sun Hung Kai Financial argues a rise in IPOs could even alleviate surplus liquidity.

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  Editorial: casinos raise Singapore’s financial stakes

  20 Jan 2010 Nations & economies, Editorial
  The creation of two casino and entertainment complexes in the city-state will benefit its economy, property valuations and asset prices initially, but could make the country even more cyclical. Gamblers beware.

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  Regulatory regime tipped to alter hedge fund landscape

  19 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Hedge funds, Nations & economies, Asset management
  Stringent regulatory requirements could make hedge funds more expensive to manage and may force firms to change location. A research house has picked potential winners and losers among industry strategies this year.

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  Carbon market tipped to contract in 2010

  19 Jan 2010 Nations & economies, Commodities, Energy
  A fall in carbon trading and stablisation of prices is expected to cause the global carbon market to contract this year. Widespread recession led to subdued appetite for carbon products, which in turn weighed on prices.

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  Asia ex-Japan equity funds see record inflow

  16 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Overseas investors poured into regional equities in Asia ex-Japan last year as funds recorded their largest ever inflow, according to Macquarie research. Emerging market funds globally also hit a new high.

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  Opinion: why China's lending could crimp GDP growth

  14 Jan 2010 Nations & economies, Loans
  The nation’s lending splurge over the past year will have ramifications later this year, with interest rates and the renminbi set to rise. That, in turn, could impact the pace of the country’s economic expansion.

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  China’s reserve ratio hike to hit banking stocks

  13 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Loans, Foreign exchange
  Beijing’s decision to raise banks’ reserve requirement ratio 50 basis points to 16% is likely to have a negative impact on Chinese equities, note analysts. It also raises expectations about interest rate hikes and adds to speculation that Beijing will relax the dollar peg.

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  China shows it’s serious about reining in lending

  13 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Bonds, Loans, Foreign exchange
  By increasing the reserve requirement ratio, the People’s Bank of China has sent out a strong message, and further hikes are expected. Some believe it was motivated to rein in credit growth and to suck liquidity out of the system, with billions in PBoC bills set to mature.

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  Asia tipped to dominate depositary receipt industry

  13 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Asian issuers of depositary receipts made up the majority of deals globally last year, a report finds. The region is tipped to continue dominating this year as investors seek to tap into its rebound from the financial crisis.

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  Citi highlights Greater China challenges for investors

  12 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Stock markets offer upside potential, but the pace of gains is uncertain and the environment promises to be more challenging this year than last, the US bank says.

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  Strong foreign equity flows forecast for Asia

  12 Jan 2010 Nations & economies, Foreign exchange
  Foreign investors will continue to focus on growth prospects and currency appreciation, notes Calyon. China is expected to resume renminbi appreciation soon, which could spur other Asian nations to follow suit.

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  Former ‘Asian Tiger’ economies on comeback trail

  12 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  The region’s developed economies have rebounded strongly from the financial crisis and stand to benefit from a recovery in global trade, says a fund manager.

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  Deutsche sees modest China equity gains in 2010

  11 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Stock gains should not top 15% in 2010 as Beijing starts to tighten monetary policy, predicts Deutsche Bank. It believes sectors positively linked to inflation and exports are likely to do well, as will clean and renewable energy.

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  Crude oil prices forecast to be volatile in 2010

  11 Jan 2010 Nations & economies, Commodities, Energy
  Barclays Capital believes oil will trade between US$70 and US$100 a barrel this year. It suspects prices could remain elevated as a restocking cycle begins, although Opec is likely to step in if prices move too quickly.

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  Offshore issuers target entry to China’s stock markets

  10 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  After years of talk but little progress, the mainland’s regulators could soon give the go-ahead for international issuers and red-chip companies to list shares in Shanghai.

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  Opinion: why Asia’s airline industry must consolidate

  08 Jan 2010 M&A, Nations & economies
  The move by AirAsia and Jetstar to form an alliance to cut costs is widely regarded as shrewd given the present economic climate. But further consolidation is needed if the ailing industry is to avoid an outbreak of bankruptcies.

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  Investors unnerved by Japanese banks’ capital needs

  07 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is set to launch a US$8.7 billion share issue and Mizuho Financial Group is likely to follow. The deals will test weak investor resolve and threaten to undermine the lenders’ financial performance, writes Asiamoney correspondent Peter McGill.

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  China looks for billions to fill bank funding hole

  07 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Beijing wants its major financial institutions to raise vast amounts of capital to sustain their lending. The equity deluge will challenge the priorities of sovereign wealth funds and large fund managers alike.

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  CCB tips the Hang Seng to hit 29,000 this year

  07 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  Peter So, the Chinese bank’s head of research, expects the HSI to achieve a 12-month high of 29,000 points and is urging equity investors to capitalise before fiscal tightening measures are introduced later in 2010.

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  Credit Suisse Private Banking outlines 2010 upside

  07 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Commodities, Private banking
  The division is retaining an overweight on non-Japan equities, with indices in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea offering the most potential. It also expects the renminbi to appreciate up to 5% during the year.

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  Super bubble warning for Indian stocks

  06 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  The Sensex could venture further into bubble territory in 2010 as the nation’s economy rebounds to high levels of positive growth, interest rates remain low and corporate investment returns to the country, cautions Noble Group.

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  Outlining opportunities for investors in 2010

  05 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Research report
  Sean Darby, Asia equity strategist at Nomura, considers which countries and sectors offer the most potential this year and which face the largest challenges.

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  Asia at risk of 1990s-style asset bubble, warns Nomura

  04 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies
  The bank believes Asian central banks will maintain loose monetary policy for longer than is warranted, raising the risk of asset bubbles forming. It recommends investors look to south-east Asian equity markets for value.

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  Credit Suisse unveils Asia’s most undervalued markets

  04 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Nations & economies, Research report
  Sakthi Siva, the bank’s Asia equity strategist, considers which countries and sectors offer the most potential and which face the greatest challenges this year.

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  Hong Kong’s IPO market tipped to surge in 2010

  04 Jan 2010 Stock & exchange, Investment banking, Nations & economies
  Debut listings in the city are forecast to top HK$300 billion this year as firms strive to tap into China’s growth, PricewaterhouseCoopers says. Hong Kong's capital markets are expected to be less volatile than global counterparts, with interest rates forecast to remain low.