Arguably, nothing has gone right for China in 2023.
The year began in hopeful mood. After three years of pandemic-related isolation and a messy exit from president Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policy, this was supposed to be a comeback year for Asia’s largest economy.
Nothing of the sort has happened. China’s year has marched to a steady drumbeat of escalating crises and disappointing data.
In effect, global investors are saying to China: ‘We’re just not that into you.’
Retail sales growth hovers in the mid single-digit range (monthly consumer spending rose at an average annualised rate of 4.7% in the five months to the end of October, according to the national bureau of statistics). Most analysts at the start of 2023 projected double-digit growth.
The property sector is increasingly beleaguered. If anything, its predicament is growing more, not less, precarious. Property sales fell 7.8% year on year in the first 10 months of the year, against a 7.5% decline in the first three quarters. Efforts to mitigate the slide by cutting borrowing costs and relaxing restrictions on home ownership have fallen flat.